Technical comment (very wonky) for those
interested. from LinkedIn VN
There are three predominant forces that have become volatile: commodity prices, foreign exchange rates, and government(s) policy AND any discussion of the effects of one element has to be presented in multiple time periods (intertemporal). Mr. Pham laid the foundation for the discussion of oil price fluctuation with (http://www.eia.gov/countries/country-data.cfm?fips=vm). However at this moment the dollar strength, and government (and Central Bank) policies worldwide are also taking dramatic movements.
The original question, I remind you, is about VN so the oil price and VND rates are mixed with government policies (subsidies, investments, taxes, and spending) as well as international government policies (the coming TPP, or agricultural exports).
For those of you who are studying this (beyond students) it is a great multidimensional case study. For those with a specific interest please remember there is no simple answer.
The discussion is compounded by the lags in decisions all around the world, few move fast when these elements change. In VN there is a special category of 'slow movement and change' but change there will have to be. If you are a businessman, you have to build a multiperiod matrix. If you are just curious, ask yourself 'what else should be included'?
My opinion, BTW, in the face of this year's (coming slowly) data on VN exports and inward remittances (all dollar denominated) is that the VN economy will ride the benefit of most of these volatile effects unless government gets in the way.
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