Monday, January 12, 2015

Predictive and Preventative Risk Indicators


Many ideas or tools in risk are recycled – regularly and often. The development of sophisticated and accurate K.R.I.’s began with the emergence of operational risk as a discipline and many of the really good papers date from the period 1995-2005. Many concentrate on either operations or customers, as they should yet fail to emphasize the monitoring process once these tools are in place.  I always suspect that someone in the background is selling an I.T. application to do this.

This week the topic resurfaces in RISK magazine Six steps for preventive KRIs , and once again the concept of well-designed data indicators is paramount. We cannot argue against well done measurement tools, analytic or predictive, but the devil is still in the details. An example:

A couple of applications for risk oversight at the Board level came across my desk, one bank and one non bank.  The chief risk officer was swamped by data driven proposals for super systems and data mining and back testing.  Both chose a cost effective approach.  Both realized that the effort was necessary but not sufficient and asked for a dashboard for monitoring. Both used the tools (KRI’s plus dashboard) successfully as an early warning system; however one shared the dashboard with his Board and the other did not (at least in the beginning).  After a couple of years both have integrated the tools into Board education as well as staff training.  We can learn from both.

My point is a simple one.  As risk management tools increase and decline in popularity, the monitoring and communication process is still the foundation stone. If I could draw cartoons, I would have a Cro-Magnon man looking at a rock while holding a stone hammer (labeled KRI) over his head.

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