Innumeracy

The failure to grasp things numeric – figures, forecasts, comparisons, estimates, and transactions – continues unabated among Americans young and old.  Could be the weather, or the news, or ecclesiastical arguments about the age of the world; but time and time again the majority seems to be misled or shocked when the result does not correspond to their expectations.

Innumeracy is to understanding phenomena as literacy is to understanding words, but there is no bridge for jargon like the one that slang fills for conversation. If you do not pay attention to the numbers you just do not care. Popular pundits carp about science and math deficiencies in our schools, but I believe it is everywhere. The popularity of short form narratives, which prevent diving deep into the basis for arguments, leads everyone to exploit exaggeration opportunities.  Nearly every example can have a range of 15%-25% (population percentages which  blah blah blah) and the speaker or writer is allowed to pretend it is significant. Racial and ethnic groups are significant.  Percentage of people in rehab is significant. Gender groups are significant. Illness categories are significant.  But they all have different statistical basis, so an argument can be made that none is statistically more important than another unless you explore further.  Weather forecasts, our recent friend or foe depending on where you live, have enormous margins of errors but few people read that far. Nor do they want to.

People who concentrate on the numbers are no longer merely nerds, they call themselves data ferrets.  The image is accurate if not too attractive. They are easy to find if you want to read their views. Some progress has been made by technology, where FRED gives anyone the skill to do economics numbers; or sports enthusiasts can find readymade statistics websites.  Local governments now post their budgets in clear terms, so a bit of numeric transparency has begun.  We have to get everyone to use it.

The numbers and their origin do indeed matter, but in our country it feels like a general phobia for numbers, and few seem to want to chase the wonks for their opinions – giving a pass to the outspoken and usually inaccurate bloviators. The result, as I step back today, is that almost every headline is exaggerated if you dig deeper into the statistics in the background. How do we get even a few more people to dig deeper?

There are places in the world, by the way, where innumeracy is not the norm.  Singapore is small, but like the Scandinavian countries the educational system has the younger generation fully acclimated to dealing with numbers and forecasts and statistics.  This is not merely for business, but also for philosophy and the transactions of everyday life. I believe the older generations will not change, but a bit of focus is surely in order for the younger groups.  Maybe there is an app for that.