Tuesday, February 3, 2015

Relative vs. Nominal Statements


Trying to sort out just why so many are so wrong – commentators, headlines, even personal discussions. Not just ignorant, or under informed, or stuck in a narrative, just simply wrong. No Facts, or evidence, or (horrors) deep discussion can dissuade them.  There must be identifiable root causes, and those of us who are forever optimistic reckon that if we identify why, then there can be change.

Starting with simple information deficit as a premise, I ruled that out. Even if we have any manner of attention deficit disorder, there is so much information at our fingertips that cannot be the problem.  Then came speculation as a root cause – but those who speculate are speculators, not fundamentally wrong.  We wish they would have better structure to their speculation, but they are easily identified. So I was convinced that it was a basic lack of understanding of logic – ‘correlation is not causality’—serves to explain a great deal of the wrongheadedness out there.  Time and time again there is a lot of confusion when observed results are not results at all.  But even this framework comes up short.

A formative time for me was a job I had in the 1970’s looking at what populations ate in countries all around the world, and measuring quantities and prices for economic comparisons. The first part of the task was the name of the food, and there I realized that different humans call the same foods by different names and in different frameworks.  Identifying the relative facts was the key, for if you stayed with the nominal observation you could get it wrong almost every time.

Todays wrongheaded focus on the nominal (and conflate correlation and causality) all the time. They fall victim to their favorite narratives without exploring the relative information and comparisons. Of course today’s headlines include the moronic approach to vaccination avoidance. For your example, think about food handlers.  I will avoid a blanket accusation of sociopathy for anyone suggesting avoiding vaccination, but the relative context is the nail in their logical coffin. It is not acceptable to allow anyone to simply observe the nominal and get away with it. They should be challenged overtly and loudly.
My generation suffered the benefit of listening to Henny Youngman

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