Computer (and Smartphone) Security – in simple terms

Only the lazy and inattentive should fall victim to security problems, with a couple of exceptions.  In short   turn off, clean up, filter what you can, and take your personal security seriously.

Turn off devices when you are not using them.  This includes your phone.  Do you really have to have a phone or tablet powered up overnight?  The bad guys do, for that is when they work most.

Clean up your files on your phone and all computers; in fact, do the maintenance that all the experts tell you from running virus checks to double deleting spam email. It should be regular, not spot.

Most protection systems can be intrusive, but not all.  Actively manage your spam filters and file filters to suit your use, but put them in place both on your devices and at the system host.  You can always switch them off when pressed for time, but then turn the filters back on.

Two pieces of advice on personal security.  First, have multiple accounts (both financial and email) to direct transactions or communication to a serious account for serious matters, and to other accounts for anything that can be risky. Gmail accounts are for silly things…and let the spam go there.  As for money, a small balance credit card or small balance PayPal account is perfect for small transactions. Keep your bank account to yourself, unless you have several, and find a no fee credit card to use as a spare.

The second piece of advice pertains to passwords.  Yes your dog and your mother’s maiden name is OK for silly things, but if confidentiality and finance is involved you should invest your time is complex password creation and updates.  The experts say that 14 characters using phrases with numbers is best. Your dog won’t do, you never know what you might step in.

Gardiner’s warning…show some patience

Almost April and the ground is very frozen with ice patches.  The culprit is low nighttime temperatures combined with a lack of full bright sunny days.  It has happened before, and all of us have been impatient before.  The most complex science based advice you can get it  -- don’t.

The frost will move up and the weather will be cloudy for a couple of weeks, so try not to rush anything.  Start seeds indoors and in cold frames.  Prep smaller gardens with black plastic (temporary) to both raise the temperatures and aid drying.  Avoid planting seeds in wet soil and although some seedlings (greens) can be put in wet soils, most suffer setbacks and compression effects.

We will be later than we want for the enjoyment of our gardens, but the price of premature starts is soil compression and runoffs and stunted plants. The good news is that the end of April is always redemption – the strength of the sun and the stringing of degree days back to back accelerates the growth of everything – subject to good soil tilth. Do your peas if you must (they seem to survive everything) but go easy on the rest until the dirt feels right.

Watching the VN economy -- is legacy data collection a bad thing?

True tea lovers always tell me that older tea is never as satisfying as fresh, and watching the tea leaves for the VN economy appears to be similar. Recent data say that measured remittances are far below international data, that FDI is projected to dramatically decline, and that there is an unmeasurable increase in the effect of ecommerce. Business people, locally and globally know the facts as they see them, and the significant gap between the legacy data reporting and modern economic phenomena is a problem only if you are married to old models.

To their credit, the traditional data gatherers get the bigger flows -- the enormous garment, seafood, and agriculture movements (although the invoices may be net of fees), the formal investments in infrastructure, and a consistent view of tourism.  But if you are trying to predict the future movements, the marginal changes are outside the umbrella of traditional data.

Certainly the structure and volume of remittances has escaped official channels, and that is good for individuals and troublesome for the government (but probably not VN as a country), and the digitization of commerce generally, but particularly internationally make tracking of investments impossible for everyone to measure not just the VN government.

The bad news is that VN is no different from the rest of the world.  In all countries nontraditional measures of the economy are being added and shared -- but outside government channels. The news flows are no help, since they still think that the share market is a casino and focus on short term movements most of the time. To read the pace and direction of the VN economy, which looks pretty good even without TPP, we need more sharing of admittedly anecdotal nontraditional measures. 

Do you have a favorite statistic you watch? Fresh tea brews great satisfaction.

Aches and pains

March appears to be the most painful month for companies and institutions and individuals – even animals. I have suddenly realized that all the promises of the past year are overdue for everyone and the excuses for delay have vanished.  Obligations must be met, plans realized, deferred maintenance no longer put off, and we certainly cannot blame the weather.

For us all the question of ‘what to tackle first’ is paramount. Remarkably, costs are lower so that we can gloat for the delay whether we intended it or not. The days are longer and the holidays are few.  No excuses.  Time to roll up our sleeves and get things finished….at least until baseball starts.

In your shorts

Getting a lot of questions about markets nowadays.  I guess I have to remind everyone of my view that because the boys and girls who make money trading always make more money when there is volatility you should ignore anything short term.

The past few months have added an awful lot of evidence of just how poor the stock pickers are doing compared to the simple folk who do not pay attention to short term market moves.

Think of it in the same way we ignore crazy people --  it is not worth the effort.  Relax. Plant your garden.

Understanding The internet dot-SUCKS Domain

At the end of the month all of us can purchase domain names ending with dot-Sucks.  This is:

a) An excellent part of information strategy to protect your pristine company image on the internet

b) An unabashed attempt to capture individuals’ paranoia

c) A great business promotion idea.

Whoever originated the idea, they also planted articles on how pop stars got out in front of the wave and purchased several variations on these domain names before someone else does. How clever. Does it make you want to but your own?  Does it make you want to buy the name of your sports rival?  How about family members or personal enemies? I supposed if you are paranoid enough this sort of preemptive strategy is a regular part of your information strategy. What a waste…..

Rotten Animal Spirits

March is cruel, in an animal sort of way.  Youth has its hormonal surge. More daylight awakens stirring to get outdoors in us all but the weather (old people always complain about the weather) always prevents real outdoor activity. All of the projects put off in the repair department are now visible, compounded by the ‘get ready for summer’ projects.  Frustrations run high.

And then there are the chronic complainers and whiners (or whingers if you are in the UK).  Generally cooped up all winter, the complainers emerge in force.  They hog the conversations, imposing their self-absorbed complaints.  They confront for no reason. They bollix up what should be a delightful spring. Their animal spirits are negative. Ignoring them is difficult, but best.

Data on Money Managers—Gross or Net

I keep looking at the returns that money managers provide to investors, and perhaps I am lazy or just too old to know where to look but are the published returns before or after the fees are paid? The articles in the journals, or Morningstar, or even the actual prospectus may state the fees, but seldom indicates whether or not the returns vs. benchmark include the fees extracted.  Any common approach or terminology I should know?  Guidance please….

The lifestyle structural economic shift (insensitivity alert)

Each month the press and those who follow the press go through the data releases on employment.  The more you wish to listen, the more you get granularity – claims, jobs, changes in the workforce, hours worked, earnings, part time vs full time, and one unitary number (the unemployment rate) that may or may not make sense at all. Arguments abound concerning the validity of all of it, but it is a consistently gathered and reported set of statistics that are done with rigor. The diligence of the exercise does not prevent it from wrongheadedness because its ceteris is not paribus.

The entire basis of labor statistics is a basis that remains the same, and I am convinced that at the high middle and low end of all of these data series there has been material structural change in this basis – in short, lifestyle decisions determine employment decisions throughout the U.S economy.

First, I insensitively consider the family formation  decision to be a lifestyle issue, so let us just say the family unit of 2015 is quite different than in the past.  Data has emerged that households without married couples surpass those with a married couple. Beyond this characteristic, the former extended family rarely exists, and thus the support for child care which leads us to…

The decision to not work and allocate efforts towards family is a choice, but it is exacerbated by the lack of extended family and the high cost of commercial child care.  Worsened by the dispersion of mothers and mothers in law away from the grandchildren, it often make sense to simply not work; now more than ever.  But the decision to form a family is a lifestyle decision, and even worse the proliferation of ‘accidental’ families (again to be insensitive) is a lifestyle choice.(I won’t go in detail to avoid outrage)

Compounding the change in the basis a third lifestyle issue that I find remarkably absent from the expert articles.  A brief review of the want ads shows hundreds of good pay with benefit jobs all around the US that go begging.  Not requiring advanced education these jobs are unfilled because the applicant cannot pass a drug test. This is not limited to the millennials, but there is a core of our population that has chosen a lifestyle that includes drugs (including prescription meds) and/or alcohol that eliminates them from full labor force participation. We do not see the ‘cannot pass the follicle test’ category in the statistics but we know them well…they are our friends family and neighbors. An $18 per hour CDL job with benefits is the low end of available compensation that this broad cohort self-disqualifies.

Good arguments do not rely on anecdotes and include data.  I have none, but the strength of the anecdotes is that they compound.  The nontraditional family also has accidental children to care for and has a lifestyle that includes substances that prevent proper employment and advancement. For the older cohorts, individuals and groups have chosen paths that are compatible with these lifestyles and they do not affect the employments statistics (but they do affect the government transfers as they age).  The younger cohorts may actually have an acceleration effect where nontraditional household leverages the child care lifestyle and accelerates the use of recreational substances.

But I am insensitive. This is a free society, and these morons have the right to their lifestyle choices.  Just don’t ask me to listen to the arguments for more transfer payments to the long term unemployed. It is a lifestyle choice or choices that got them there.

Springtime delayed

Happy St Patricks Day, there is still frost in the ground

The sun is there but mostly behind clouds

Projects prepared are projects delayed

Chill in the air so cleanup, including the dog, is postponed

Anyone intending to spend dollars better have dollars or the plan is dead

The oil price plummets but gasoline stays pricey

Cannot cheat or be clever or wiggle when fundamentals are not moving

All we can do is wait for a thaw……

Deviant Behavior

In case you have lived in a cave the past six months, the economic environment in the world and in the US in particular has changed dramatically – and rapidly.  Suggestion: if anyone tells you that nobody need pay attention to the volatility of the oil prices and the dollar in the world get as far away from them as you can.  Point in fact: most risk managers worry when a single variable goes beyond two standard deviations.  We are no at a point where both the dollar and oil are beyond this threshold. If your business ( or your life) relies significantly on the level of both, they may be additive.

If you want to watch (or sound like a real smarty[pants) go to (or send others to). http://www.macrotrends.net/chart/1335/dollar-gold-and-oil-chart-last-ten-years

Globalony

Wonderful word, but not my word ; as seemingly every time a microphone is thrust in front of an ingénue they blurt out ‘facts’ that reveal serious ignorance of elements outside their own country or region.  This is 2015, last I checked, and all statements can be fact-checked by a twelve year old.

My own opinion has emerged that the twin tsunami of profound granular data availability and asymmetric behavior has caused those not prone to respect for the facts to come unglued in their public pronouncements. I will explain the details.

First, a prejudice – just because a microphone is thrust in front of one’s face an attempt a profound and attention getting response is not obligatory.  I really have developed an attraction to some level of opacity. We do not need to know every detail of everyone’s views and activity.  Individuals and institutions may actually benefit by some selective silence. (A lot of silence in many cases).

Profound unfettered availability of data, or science, or true expert views is a recent phenomenon. Researchers have had access to real scientific data and models for a long time, but the contemporary digital (access) communications flood has allowed everyone a fact-based view of demographic, geopolitical, environmental, and social trends that may well run contrary to the narrative that large groups of people embrace. Some continue to be ‘truthers’—not letting the facts get in the way of their opinions. Most are at least temporarily disoriented, and reach for alternatives.

Examples abound, from the world of sports that has been shaken by data analytics; to the demographic projections for the US which shortly will no longer be Caucasian majority and blacks will no longer be the largest minority, and surely to the data on accelerating income inequality all around the world.

Asymmetry appears in every element of current events.  The wars around the globe are fought asymmetrically.  Social foundations, with only 47% of households having a married couple, no longer retain familiar characteristics. Governments and politicians simply cannot negotiate as in the past. So that these unconventional behaviors of individuals leave observers confused. In our current culture of surveillance these behaviors cannot be avoided.  Most traditionalists reach for alternatives.

The alternatives most common are historical narratives – storytelling reflecting the facts and environments of a more familiar time. With comfort in numbers, these prisoners of cognitive capture do not realize that 2015 is passing them by with great speed, and rather than adapt and adopt so that they can both deal with and understand modernity these globalonies become more and more frustrated. Good.  They deserve it.

Ubiquity is the new exclusivity

Don’t tweet me your offering of product

I don’t want your sales staff to reach out to me

Forget those snap chats that clog my phone

I will not be your friend or contact or BBwhatever

I don’t tweet I don’t chat I don’t chit chat I don’t text

….and BTW scripted phone messages are autodeleted

Extra Time ---Get Springloaded

Sure there is a mountain of snow with no place for the melt to flow.  Sure the ground is frozen and should remain so for a couple weeks. Sure there is no cash left after paying all the bills, as usual.  But the sun comes up and sets around six each morning and evening ---  the added daylight helps relax the knot in the shoulders.

But now the sun is out, and if you stay indoors you will notice all the cobwebs (and pet hair) you  have avoided for a couple months. Easy choice: go work in the garden/garage  or stay inside and clean house.  Everything is still frozen, but you can get ready.  Seeds can be started in trays and moved out before they sprout.  Cold frames can be set up in the simplest way (old storm windows and clear plastic is still the favorite) and compost can be started even this late.

Stick to cold weather crops – greens of all manner are best.  Wait for the tomato starters, despite the temptation.  St. Paddys day is still for the peas in the ground

The tyranny of the small screen

There is no denying the ubiquity of the small and not-so-small screen globally. The impression among those not fully committed to hand held devices is that the flock’s devotion to their phones and small tablets is total and impenetrable. The implication is that if the sender and creator of communications want the recipient to actually learn and retain the content sent, the device used is problematic.

This is a subset of the short form/ long form debate; and if I recall correctly there is substantial evidence of superior cognitive development and retention for the long form. My observation is more intense – I believe that the ‘portable learners’, while they have a right to their ‘quick reads’ miss out on a great deal that is not intended.  Not just the subject lines to communications, which are rarely used if not ignored, but the deep content and subsequent learning from articles and case studies and discussion which derive from the page. The hyperlink is a brilliant addition to articles, but only if used.

Hat’s off to the designers of digital pages and audio/visual applications which have certainly conquered the challenge of grabbing attention. Once you have the ‘portables’ attention, you have to go the next step.  I observed an individual following a webinar on their handheld device yesterday. Their behavior was laudable since they (almost) avoided multitasking during the 15 minute webinar. I am certain that the high level teaching points were recognized, but I doubt any deep thought or questioning ensued.

This is a conflict that those of us committed to learning are not going to win for many cohorts of the target audiences; so I suggest that we try to achieve victory in a few battles. Our audiences are intelligent, so they should be a) informed of the added benefit of long form concentration; b) they should be engaged so that there are questions and discussion; and c) most difficult would be a focused concentration of attention on the matters at hand – that really suggests a temporary halt to multitasking. Ironic that these suggestions are not just for ‘portables’, but for seminars as well.

The short term US economy will be about fixing stuff

Staring out the window, any window, is rough when there has been an extended period of wretched weather.  Everyone, particularly those not playing video games, sees through the snow or ice or fog to the repair projects and deferred maintenance that has been piling up.  Financial analysts proclaim the joy of a gas price windfall driving American consumers into stores?  Baloney.

Somewhere out there is a person who has no gutters to fix, no paint peeling indoors and out, a clean car devoid of calcium buildup, and windows that are always washed. The rest of us have two lists that get longer every day—those winter chores that we have put off for weather reasons, and the already late preparation for spring.  Change spark plugs on the mower, did you?  Pat yourself on the back.

The early data was a surprise – the American consumer shoved the gas price windfall into savings.  Of course they did…they have projects large and small awaiting the thaw or drying out or more daylight so we can try to get caught up. More daylight means more projects.  Wear gloves!