Friday, September 18, 2015

The Singular, if understated, message from the Fed



September meeting, announcements, analysis and reactions focused on the technical details; but I heard one clear message – the growth and normalization of the U.S. economy is confounded by the behavior of the U.S. Congress. Without fiscal participation, monetary policy is at best constrained.

Yellen’s statement merely referenced the situation, but all manner of historical comparisons remind us that some level of fiscal stimulus gives monetary policy leverage for growth.  We have conflict, sequester, no energy policy, little attention to infrastructure, and a budget process overwhelmed with peripheral discussions and not economics. The Fed is forced to the sidelines.

Few if any of the political candidates offer hope to change the impasse.  The message now is clearer than ever --  the U.S. needs an entirely new cast of characters in politics.  Perhaps professionals who care about more than their own electoral success.

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