A beautiful Spring morning complete with the wafting aroma
of wisteria and the morning birds is really a nice time to reflect on disasters
over the past decade. We get help from
the thoughtful pundits, who tend to do the same. Here is my conclusion:
The financial crisis, the global political crisis, and our
own personal crisis (potentially plural) are the clear result of leverage
(financial and personal), non-linearities,multiple equilibria, and self-fulfilling
panic.
To be brief, just think about overextension we have all done
over the past decade….more than our individual or collective capacity – that is
leverage (with its cousin, risk). Observe that old patterns and structures have
diminished, so people and institutions no longer follow linear
(straightforward) paths. Then note that most strive to envisage a logical stability,
when in fact there are several versions of stability that clash. And finally, most of our fatal flaws come
from panic. Mine did,,,
There, that’s the answer….don’t you feel better already?
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