The importance of fifty degrees

Here comes may --- the ladies in my family always started to set out plants on the first of May with the same diligence that they applied to planting peas on St Paddy’s day.  But they also covered their plants at night to protect against the chill in spring evenings (and clear skies). All the greens are happy in this weather, but your summer plants simply do not like extreme cold.

If you want to put out your started plants, harden them first for a couple nights under cover (even newspaper) and then watch the weather.  Nighttime lows below 50 degrees will set back your young plants, unless you cover them as well.  The soil should be 50 degrees minimum as well (don’t throw out that old thermometer) if you really want to be sure. One way to ‘cheat’ is to warm the soild with anything black (there is no science about black plastic, by the way) that the sun heats up nicely.  You don’t see them so much anymore but the old boys used to use ‘tomato caps’ to cover, and now they sell expensive ‘wall ‘o water’ covers. Nighttime setbacks will give you spindly plants and less harvest.

For my opinion, it is worth the wait for a couple of weeks if you can do a cold frame against the side of your house – summer plants love full long sunshine and degree days and we are not there yet.

Drones….worse for animals than hot air balloons

If you have animals and you live in the countryside it is a good bet that you (and your animals) detest hot air balloons.  The sound and image terrifies horses and cows and drives dogs nuts.  But now we see that drones are worse.  One hobbyist floating a drone above horses taking what is supposed to be a serene video causes a stampede.  Who cares?  Politicians, rather than getting out in front of issues like this are too busy raising campaign money.

At last… a star at the Fed we can cheer for…..

Right or wrong, Fed officials get volumes of criticism; but now the Federal Reserve system can be proud to cheer for one of their own.  On Saturday, Bryant Jennings faces Wladmir Klitschko for a high stakes heavyweight battle at  Madison Square Garden . Jennings was, for 10 years, an employee and the Philly Fed; and is universally admired by his colleagues. I think we should all cheer him on for the symbolism at least.

 Oh, the irony……

China growth as a case study for global innumeracy; another reason to ignore media news stories….

Economists are boring, but admitting to finding Hank Paulson refreshing is beyond admitting boredom; but I confess the saturation of the airwaves with interviews of his views on China while promoting his new book (Dealing with China: An Insider Unmasks the New Economic Superpower by Henry M. Paulson) was a personal pleasure.  We have been pummeled by the media with commentary about how the China economy is in trouble as standard GDP year on year growth approaches 7%.  Rubbish.

Paulson gets it right on the fundamentals; disaggregation of the forces and drivers is the best methodology for looking at China.  What I found interesting (over and over again) was his refusal to deal with the macro number.  Again he is correct. Financial innumeracy amongst politicians is endemic.

As the basis has expanded, normal (untransformed) year on year growth will always rescale, but those in the media and politics cannot grasp this concept. Those of us who are boring just have to keep reminding them how to pronounce ‘logarithmic’. This is about finance and economics and budgets and all manner of detail which should be their expertise, but is at the end of the day a demonstration of their lack of suitability (IMHOP) for the job.   It is not the law of large numbers, is it just basic ignorance.

Quick reads:

Why China's economy is slowing  Mar 11th 2015  by S.R. | SHANGHAI

http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2015/03/economist-explains-8

The law of large numbers (financial, rather than statistical) applies to nations as well as to companies: the bigger an economy gets, the harder it is to keep growing at a fast clip. Growth of 7% this year for China would generate more additional output than a 14% pace did in 2007.

The simple arithmetic of China’s growth slowdown     Danny Quah | February 18, 2015

http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/future-development/posts/2015/02/18-china-growth-quah

The conclusion? China in 2015 is a very different economy from even just 10 years ago. It has changed far more than the world at large has in this time. A 7 percent growth rate is obviously lower than an 8 percent one. So, whatever good comes from a 7 percent growth rate, at the margin a growth rate a little higher will be even better. But, quantifying the changes that have taken place in the global economy, a 7 percent growth rate for China today means something even more positive than did a 12 percent growth rate 10 years ago.

Dirt deception

It important to get angry about really silly stupid stuff….but have you ever tried to buy dirt?

Speaking of taking advantage of innumeracy, you can buy bags measured in quarts or square feet or compressed or with filler added….it is wildly confusing since compression shrinks the visible size of the bag.  The giant compressed bales of Pro- mix are the best deal, but you would never know from the packaging.

Remember the measure: There are about 25 and 3/4 dry quarts in a cubic foot. A 20 dry quarts package of potting soil is approximately 3/4 of a cubic foot. So the 16 quart bag in the grocery store for $6.95 is much more expensive that the $8.99 one cubic foot bag at the big box store. Or is it?

Of course it is…there is a reason they call them smart phones…44 vs. 34 cents per quart.

We already have a strong, articulate, experienced female leader

Hilary Clinton is having a very bad week this week.  Christine Lagarde is in the U.S.

The head of the I.M.F. is knowledgeable, factual, agile in interviews, and very very impressive under pressure. She is a young vibrant and articulate sixty year old who is clearly a leader without peer who transcends any discussion of silly topics like gender or nationality or politics.

Personally I appreciate the history that she turned down the opportunity to be a leader in national politics and instead devoted her talents to world growth and development. Lagarde has also avoided foolish mistakes or statements or associations throughout her career.  In short, all others pale by comparison.

Old Fashioned Intervention

I have gotten interventionist emails and mailings for many months now.  Stress relief, packaged and disguised with all manner of new age wonderfulness. Somatic movement or authentic movement or any of the clearly well packaged mindfulness techniques are making careers for a new generation of quacks.  They prey on the kids with PTSD (and the funding behind them), they prey on the lonely, and they prey on the (allegedly) 23% of adults who are untreated and in need of professional credentialed intervention. Personally, I think this is part of the transformation of the structure of families and households, where the old extended family ties have become distanced and attenuated.

Nevermind. Let the rest of them meander down the path of spirituality and mindfulness as they strive to be centered and at peace. I prefer an early evening out with an old pal.