Springtime delayed

Happy St Patricks Day, there is still frost in the ground

The sun is there but mostly behind clouds

Projects prepared are projects delayed

Chill in the air so cleanup, including the dog, is postponed

Anyone intending to spend dollars better have dollars or the plan is dead

The oil price plummets but gasoline stays pricey

Cannot cheat or be clever or wiggle when fundamentals are not moving

All we can do is wait for a thaw……

Deviant Behavior

In case you have lived in a cave the past six months, the economic environment in the world and in the US in particular has changed dramatically – and rapidly.  Suggestion: if anyone tells you that nobody need pay attention to the volatility of the oil prices and the dollar in the world get as far away from them as you can.  Point in fact: most risk managers worry when a single variable goes beyond two standard deviations.  We are no at a point where both the dollar and oil are beyond this threshold. If your business ( or your life) relies significantly on the level of both, they may be additive.

If you want to watch (or sound like a real smarty[pants) go to (or send others to). http://www.macrotrends.net/chart/1335/dollar-gold-and-oil-chart-last-ten-years

Globalony

Wonderful word, but not my word ; as seemingly every time a microphone is thrust in front of an ingénue they blurt out ‘facts’ that reveal serious ignorance of elements outside their own country or region.  This is 2015, last I checked, and all statements can be fact-checked by a twelve year old.

My own opinion has emerged that the twin tsunami of profound granular data availability and asymmetric behavior has caused those not prone to respect for the facts to come unglued in their public pronouncements. I will explain the details.

First, a prejudice – just because a microphone is thrust in front of one’s face an attempt a profound and attention getting response is not obligatory.  I really have developed an attraction to some level of opacity. We do not need to know every detail of everyone’s views and activity.  Individuals and institutions may actually benefit by some selective silence. (A lot of silence in many cases).

Profound unfettered availability of data, or science, or true expert views is a recent phenomenon. Researchers have had access to real scientific data and models for a long time, but the contemporary digital (access) communications flood has allowed everyone a fact-based view of demographic, geopolitical, environmental, and social trends that may well run contrary to the narrative that large groups of people embrace. Some continue to be ‘truthers’—not letting the facts get in the way of their opinions. Most are at least temporarily disoriented, and reach for alternatives.

Examples abound, from the world of sports that has been shaken by data analytics; to the demographic projections for the US which shortly will no longer be Caucasian majority and blacks will no longer be the largest minority, and surely to the data on accelerating income inequality all around the world.

Asymmetry appears in every element of current events.  The wars around the globe are fought asymmetrically.  Social foundations, with only 47% of households having a married couple, no longer retain familiar characteristics. Governments and politicians simply cannot negotiate as in the past. So that these unconventional behaviors of individuals leave observers confused. In our current culture of surveillance these behaviors cannot be avoided.  Most traditionalists reach for alternatives.

The alternatives most common are historical narratives – storytelling reflecting the facts and environments of a more familiar time. With comfort in numbers, these prisoners of cognitive capture do not realize that 2015 is passing them by with great speed, and rather than adapt and adopt so that they can both deal with and understand modernity these globalonies become more and more frustrated. Good.  They deserve it.

Ubiquity is the new exclusivity

Don’t tweet me your offering of product

I don’t want your sales staff to reach out to me

Forget those snap chats that clog my phone

I will not be your friend or contact or BBwhatever

I don’t tweet I don’t chat I don’t chit chat I don’t text

….and BTW scripted phone messages are autodeleted

Extra Time ---Get Springloaded

Sure there is a mountain of snow with no place for the melt to flow.  Sure the ground is frozen and should remain so for a couple weeks. Sure there is no cash left after paying all the bills, as usual.  But the sun comes up and sets around six each morning and evening ---  the added daylight helps relax the knot in the shoulders.

But now the sun is out, and if you stay indoors you will notice all the cobwebs (and pet hair) you  have avoided for a couple months. Easy choice: go work in the garden/garage  or stay inside and clean house.  Everything is still frozen, but you can get ready.  Seeds can be started in trays and moved out before they sprout.  Cold frames can be set up in the simplest way (old storm windows and clear plastic is still the favorite) and compost can be started even this late.

Stick to cold weather crops – greens of all manner are best.  Wait for the tomato starters, despite the temptation.  St. Paddys day is still for the peas in the ground

The tyranny of the small screen

There is no denying the ubiquity of the small and not-so-small screen globally. The impression among those not fully committed to hand held devices is that the flock’s devotion to their phones and small tablets is total and impenetrable. The implication is that if the sender and creator of communications want the recipient to actually learn and retain the content sent, the device used is problematic.

This is a subset of the short form/ long form debate; and if I recall correctly there is substantial evidence of superior cognitive development and retention for the long form. My observation is more intense – I believe that the ‘portable learners’, while they have a right to their ‘quick reads’ miss out on a great deal that is not intended.  Not just the subject lines to communications, which are rarely used if not ignored, but the deep content and subsequent learning from articles and case studies and discussion which derive from the page. The hyperlink is a brilliant addition to articles, but only if used.

Hat’s off to the designers of digital pages and audio/visual applications which have certainly conquered the challenge of grabbing attention. Once you have the ‘portables’ attention, you have to go the next step.  I observed an individual following a webinar on their handheld device yesterday. Their behavior was laudable since they (almost) avoided multitasking during the 15 minute webinar. I am certain that the high level teaching points were recognized, but I doubt any deep thought or questioning ensued.

This is a conflict that those of us committed to learning are not going to win for many cohorts of the target audiences; so I suggest that we try to achieve victory in a few battles. Our audiences are intelligent, so they should be a) informed of the added benefit of long form concentration; b) they should be engaged so that there are questions and discussion; and c) most difficult would be a focused concentration of attention on the matters at hand – that really suggests a temporary halt to multitasking. Ironic that these suggestions are not just for ‘portables’, but for seminars as well.

The short term US economy will be about fixing stuff

Staring out the window, any window, is rough when there has been an extended period of wretched weather.  Everyone, particularly those not playing video games, sees through the snow or ice or fog to the repair projects and deferred maintenance that has been piling up.  Financial analysts proclaim the joy of a gas price windfall driving American consumers into stores?  Baloney.

Somewhere out there is a person who has no gutters to fix, no paint peeling indoors and out, a clean car devoid of calcium buildup, and windows that are always washed. The rest of us have two lists that get longer every day—those winter chores that we have put off for weather reasons, and the already late preparation for spring.  Change spark plugs on the mower, did you?  Pat yourself on the back.

The early data was a surprise – the American consumer shoved the gas price windfall into savings.  Of course they did…they have projects large and small awaiting the thaw or drying out or more daylight so we can try to get caught up. More daylight means more projects.  Wear gloves!