The importance of fifty degrees

Here comes may --- the ladies in my family always started to set out plants on the first of May with the same diligence that they applied to planting peas on St Paddy’s day.  But they also covered their plants at night to protect against the chill in spring evenings (and clear skies). All the greens are happy in this weather, but your summer plants simply do not like extreme cold.

If you want to put out your started plants, harden them first for a couple nights under cover (even newspaper) and then watch the weather.  Nighttime lows below 50 degrees will set back your young plants, unless you cover them as well.  The soil should be 50 degrees minimum as well (don’t throw out that old thermometer) if you really want to be sure. One way to ‘cheat’ is to warm the soild with anything black (there is no science about black plastic, by the way) that the sun heats up nicely.  You don’t see them so much anymore but the old boys used to use ‘tomato caps’ to cover, and now they sell expensive ‘wall ‘o water’ covers. Nighttime setbacks will give you spindly plants and less harvest.

For my opinion, it is worth the wait for a couple of weeks if you can do a cold frame against the side of your house – summer plants love full long sunshine and degree days and we are not there yet.

Drones….worse for animals than hot air balloons

If you have animals and you live in the countryside it is a good bet that you (and your animals) detest hot air balloons.  The sound and image terrifies horses and cows and drives dogs nuts.  But now we see that drones are worse.  One hobbyist floating a drone above horses taking what is supposed to be a serene video causes a stampede.  Who cares?  Politicians, rather than getting out in front of issues like this are too busy raising campaign money.

At last… a star at the Fed we can cheer for…..

Right or wrong, Fed officials get volumes of criticism; but now the Federal Reserve system can be proud to cheer for one of their own.  On Saturday, Bryant Jennings faces Wladmir Klitschko for a high stakes heavyweight battle at  Madison Square Garden . Jennings was, for 10 years, an employee and the Philly Fed; and is universally admired by his colleagues. I think we should all cheer him on for the symbolism at least.

 Oh, the irony……

China growth as a case study for global innumeracy; another reason to ignore media news stories….

Economists are boring, but admitting to finding Hank Paulson refreshing is beyond admitting boredom; but I confess the saturation of the airwaves with interviews of his views on China while promoting his new book (Dealing with China: An Insider Unmasks the New Economic Superpower by Henry M. Paulson) was a personal pleasure.  We have been pummeled by the media with commentary about how the China economy is in trouble as standard GDP year on year growth approaches 7%.  Rubbish.

Paulson gets it right on the fundamentals; disaggregation of the forces and drivers is the best methodology for looking at China.  What I found interesting (over and over again) was his refusal to deal with the macro number.  Again he is correct. Financial innumeracy amongst politicians is endemic.

As the basis has expanded, normal (untransformed) year on year growth will always rescale, but those in the media and politics cannot grasp this concept. Those of us who are boring just have to keep reminding them how to pronounce ‘logarithmic’. This is about finance and economics and budgets and all manner of detail which should be their expertise, but is at the end of the day a demonstration of their lack of suitability (IMHOP) for the job.   It is not the law of large numbers, is it just basic ignorance.

Quick reads:

Why China's economy is slowing  Mar 11th 2015  by S.R. | SHANGHAI

http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2015/03/economist-explains-8

The law of large numbers (financial, rather than statistical) applies to nations as well as to companies: the bigger an economy gets, the harder it is to keep growing at a fast clip. Growth of 7% this year for China would generate more additional output than a 14% pace did in 2007.

The simple arithmetic of China’s growth slowdown     Danny Quah | February 18, 2015

http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/future-development/posts/2015/02/18-china-growth-quah

The conclusion? China in 2015 is a very different economy from even just 10 years ago. It has changed far more than the world at large has in this time. A 7 percent growth rate is obviously lower than an 8 percent one. So, whatever good comes from a 7 percent growth rate, at the margin a growth rate a little higher will be even better. But, quantifying the changes that have taken place in the global economy, a 7 percent growth rate for China today means something even more positive than did a 12 percent growth rate 10 years ago.

Dirt deception

It important to get angry about really silly stupid stuff….but have you ever tried to buy dirt?

Speaking of taking advantage of innumeracy, you can buy bags measured in quarts or square feet or compressed or with filler added….it is wildly confusing since compression shrinks the visible size of the bag.  The giant compressed bales of Pro- mix are the best deal, but you would never know from the packaging.

Remember the measure: There are about 25 and 3/4 dry quarts in a cubic foot. A 20 dry quarts package of potting soil is approximately 3/4 of a cubic foot. So the 16 quart bag in the grocery store for $6.95 is much more expensive that the $8.99 one cubic foot bag at the big box store. Or is it?

Of course it is…there is a reason they call them smart phones…44 vs. 34 cents per quart.

We already have a strong, articulate, experienced female leader

Hilary Clinton is having a very bad week this week.  Christine Lagarde is in the U.S.

The head of the I.M.F. is knowledgeable, factual, agile in interviews, and very very impressive under pressure. She is a young vibrant and articulate sixty year old who is clearly a leader without peer who transcends any discussion of silly topics like gender or nationality or politics.

Personally I appreciate the history that she turned down the opportunity to be a leader in national politics and instead devoted her talents to world growth and development. Lagarde has also avoided foolish mistakes or statements or associations throughout her career.  In short, all others pale by comparison.

Old Fashioned Intervention

I have gotten interventionist emails and mailings for many months now.  Stress relief, packaged and disguised with all manner of new age wonderfulness. Somatic movement or authentic movement or any of the clearly well packaged mindfulness techniques are making careers for a new generation of quacks.  They prey on the kids with PTSD (and the funding behind them), they prey on the lonely, and they prey on the (allegedly) 23% of adults who are untreated and in need of professional credentialed intervention. Personally, I think this is part of the transformation of the structure of families and households, where the old extended family ties have become distanced and attenuated.

Nevermind. Let the rest of them meander down the path of spirituality and mindfulness as they strive to be centered and at peace. I prefer an early evening out with an old pal. 

The positive side of tribalism

The numbers are overwhelming with 44% of adults in the US saying they go to church and only 11% still attending weekly.  This well overrepresented minority makes the headlines with silly legislation and protest about discrimination and intrusions into the private personal decisions of other people not in their tribe.  It is tribalism the same way the turmoil in the geopolitical world is tribalism.

Technically, for those who care, these beliefs are part of the human ecosystem or a display of cognitive capture or (for the BLS) the largest entertainment expenditure in the U.S. For the holiday weekend families (whatever that is in 2015) gather and declare truce from arguments that have endured generations to essentially celebrate springtime. Outdoor folk get the opening of trout season and of course gardeners can finally get dirt under their fingernails. Even the Paganists got a blood moon lunar eclipse.

Would that tribalists could be calm and tranquil more often.

Hello Mother Nature

Might just be old age, but I feel we all hunkered down longer and harder this winter waiting for a spring that seemed often delayed.  But here it is…time to remember to wear gloves when handling dirt a lot and even some sun screen now that we will finally have a couple of days of sunshine.

The peeper frogs at night, the early birds in the day, and even an eclipse --- nature is so much better to celebrate than tired and meaningless ecclesiastic calendar driven events.

How to look at the Economy

April fool’s day is an appropriate time to listen to the news stories about the economy – none of them can be serious!  The world economy and the U.S. in particular increases each day in complexity, yet the media in particular try to focus their short form lens on a handful of phenomena.  Don’t.

A bundle of measures, not bundled but listed with relative and time series comparisons (stay awake) is the best direction to look.  A survey of surveys is better, but more time consuming; and for those of you who are students young and old, the public databases (think FRED) are perfect to answer your questions. About the Economy writ large (the big picture) or small (how does it affect me).

The answer, across almost every dimension, is that American large and medium companies are in good and getting better shape. They are growing, and producing innovation and profits while investing in the future.  The managers and employees at these companies are probably doing nicely.  But there are, IMHOP, four sectors in the economic world – Government Consumers, and Institutions all of which present a mixed picture.  In short, there are huge recent structural changes that in the U.S. show spotty adaptation and leadership.  The government is easy, since most agree that even the best are slow to adapt to new technology and new challenges. So any success in the other sectors is subject to government performance.  At worst government is slow to embrace new tools and techniques; at worst they are enumerate providers of poor quality services.

For consumers you will see the split between informed and uninformed, which has little to do with income of region. The family structure is changing dramatically (only 47 % of households have a married couple) and the consumption expenditures for all are becoming more and more of a business decision.  Impulse purchases and kneejerk reaction to marketing and advertising should be replaced by sober well considered decision about what to buy and when.  For many there is excellent planning and seemingly for an equal number there is not. Do we need a government agency to protect consumers from stupidity? Tempted to say no, I note the student loan issue, where the system has a twentysomething making $10000 loan choice without any thought. So the big picture is muddied, but you scenario as a consumer is really based on information – those who avoid doing stupid things seem in good shape.

The sector of the economy that is problematic is our institutions (some of which are government funded). They play a greater role than ever before, and they are visibly problematic more than in the past.  Institutions are supposed to fill in the gaps between companies and governments and individuals.  They should be forward looking and marshal resources for the long term benefit of all. My observation is that many are wonderful examples of what we want our institutions to be – proactive, productive, and transparent.  There are, however, a large number of archaic backward looking institutions that often appear to be focused on their own survival and not their mission.  You know who they are.

So how is the economy?  It depends. You should consider being an active economic participant.  If your company, your government (local), your institutions, and your household have their act together you are in great shape.  If any of these elements faces challenges (most of us) you should step up to meet them, otherwise your economy is at risk.