Been in Greece for two weeks, not just an escape from the realities of climate change (cannot function in the frozen Northeast Us) but getting a chance to know Greece as much as a foreigner can.
What do I know? All the leading soft indicators are as positive as possible -- there are investment projects everywhere . In the island more than ever. There are no available laborers -- not Greek, not Albanian, not even refugees. If the missing link is investment -- then investment is in front of our very noses. If the missing ingredient is a boost in tourism--duck! My friends in the tourism industry are beaming at full bookings. My friend in Naxos , himself a bit of an entrepreneur, has raised his rates and is still fully booked. The planes are full. The ferries have no space. This is only March.
So what about the complainers; the have a point. Officially 2.2% is anemic at best. The surplus is a drain and a pain, but it takes time for the effect of the two tranche upgrade to trickle.There is still a segment of the population (older, have lost their pensions, have health issues) who are vocal and are not participating, just grousing. The banks are straightjacketed, but we know not about the effect of alternative finance. There is still a segment of young people who get their college degrees and go to London. But the troubles in London are also moving companies to Greece -- slowly -- but noteworthy.(and most noteworthy are headquarters of shipping companies). These movements do not appear in the statistics...yet.
And the neighbors; difficulties indirectly benefit Greece. Turkey and Italy are now officially in recession. Tourists do not care (they care about Egypt) but investors do. The Chinese bull rush into Greece is slowed but not stopped -- the these are infrastructure investments and many many jobs.
Is Greece at a tipping point? I don't know, and I will be here two more weeks and learn what I can.
